China still has more than 30,000 patients of advanced schistosomiasis while new cases being reported consistently. D-dimer is a fibrin degradation product. As ascites being the dominating symptom in advanced schistosomiasis, the present study aimed to explore a prediction model of ascites with D-dimer and other clinical easy-achievable indicators. A case-control study nested in a prospective cohort was conducted in schistosomiasis-endemic area of southern China. A total of 291 patients of advanced schistosomiasis were first investigated in 2013 and further followed in 2014. Information on clinical history, physical examination, and abdominal ultrasonography, including the symptom of ascites was repeatedly collected. Result showed 44 patients having ascites. Most of the patients’ ascites were confined in the kidney area with median area of 20 mm2. The level of plasma D-dimer and pertinent liver function indicators were measured at the initial investigation in 2013. Compared with those without ascites, cases with ascites had significantly higher levels of D-dimer (0.71±2.44 μg/L vs 0.48±2.12 μg /L, P=0.005), as well ALB (44.5 vs 46.2, g/L) and Type IV collagen (50.04 vs 44.50 μg/L). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated a moderate predictive value of D-dimer by its own area under curve (AUC) of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.54-0.73) and the cutoff value as 0.81 μg/L. Dichotomized by the cutoff level, D-dimer along with other categorical variables generated a prediction model with AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.680.89). Risks of patients with specific characteristics in the prediction model were summarized. Our study suggests that the plasma D-dimer level is a reliable predictor for incident ascites in advanced schistosomiasis japonica patients.
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